“This is where we get ongoing, dizzying rotation. BTC up, then when BTC takes a breather, ETH and some largecaps (and in this regime, defi bluechips), then smallcaps, rinse and repeat. Of course, throw in some 30-60% retracements for fun.”
Paul’s opinion is about the cryptocurrency rally as a whole, including Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins, and not merely about the prevailing altcoin scenario.
Even though the seventh innings of a usual nine-innings baseball game seem overdue, Paul switched his bull market timer when the cryptocurrency market hit its low in 2018. Through a separate tweet, he said “I’m counting the bull market as starting from the all-time lows of last cycle (end of 2018).”
He stated in another Twitter post:
“For everyone saying, ‘wait, this bull run clearly has much further to go!’ It does….the start of 2017 was already the 5th or 6th inning of that cycle’s bull run.”
The crypto market rally in 2017 is often cited as an important period for the sector as it previous all-time high of $20,000 in the last month of that year. The crypto market crashed in 2018, but Bitcoin rebounded and broke the 2017 high in December 2020.
In response to a comment to one of his numerous tweets, he stated the following regarding the prevailing cryptocurrency rally:
“Time-wise, my guess is we have 9-22 months,”
He further stated: “Price wise – my guess is BTC ends the bull run between $100k-$400k and alts do better.”
Paul also gave a clarification on his opinion in the tweet that following, considering the arguable makeup of bull market time frame. He tweeted
“My baseball analogy is causing some confusion since there’s no consensus on how to categorize phases of a bull market or even where it starts. So let me throw out the analogy and walk through my thoughts on the market cycle and where we are today.”
He detailed his view regarding the performance of cryptocurrency markets for the last three years, including his opinion on the sharp decline recorded in the aftermath of Covid-19 breakout in March 2020, and forecasts for the forthcoming months.
Regarding current scenario, Paul expects further rally by altcoins, excluding considerable Bitcoin volatility. He stated “As long as BTC is consolidating, I expect alts to continue doing reasonably well. At some point, BTC will start another parabolic move higher and it’ll likely outperform alts on the move.”
He further stated “That move will trigger the next surge in new money.”