Despite the fact that the divergence started in March July 2020, directly after the conclusion of third halving event, Bitcoin was able to close the gap to the S2F model by January 2021. Nevertheless, the joy was brief, as BTC’s price started to deviate once again after a month, and has since stayed considerably underneath the S2F price.
The main driver in this discrepancy was the May 2021 collapse, when the numero uno crypto plunged by around 44%. By November, Bitcoin had rebounded and had reached an all-time high of $67.5k, giving investors renewed confidence that it would reach $100k by the end 2021, but that, too, never occurred.
As a result, many individuals lost faith in the S2F model since a slew of external elements were overlooked, rendering the paradigm outdated in today’s world. PlanB, on the other hand, seems to be confident in the model in a tweet sent out a day before, predicting that Bitcoin would reach $100k by 2023.
“It does not worry me so far,” PlanB responded to a Twitter user’s concern about the model’s latest failure, “but it surely raises the query: do we require a need to rebuild the model to this fresh low statistical information, or remain patient and wait for the cycle to end first because the value of Bitcoin can trend higher in the second part of the cycle (pulling the average to $100K)?”
If we only look at the price activity, we can see that there is a possibility. However, in order to accomplish so, Bitcoin must increase by 125.92% in the following ten months. There were only two occasions in BTC’s history of last quarter bullish rally where such a rally occurred. The initial one will be in 2018, and the second will be in 2020.
Both S2F and logarithmic regression point to $100K in 2023. pic.twitter.com/NHqoRpEmUl
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) February 14, 2022
Granting it a complete year could likely result in the top crypto coin hitting $100k (by 2023). Nevertheless, failing to consider outside events would be foolish, since several nations are now opposed to cryptos. Although most haven’t overtly banned digital payments, they are researching ways to move their people to CBDCs in an attempt to keep control over them. These events may make it more difficult for “BTC to $100k” to materialize. How far the restrictions can go? Only time can tell that.