Data provided by Whalemap indicates that whale bought roughly 9,000 BTC in 3Q18.
The whale retained the BTC for almost 22 months, which saw through sharp price corrections. Bitcoin fell below $4,000 twice, initially in January 2019 and second time in March 2020. Investor showed patience during both periods and eventually diluted his holdings for around $12,000.
It can be remembered that many analysts had cautioned about whale clusters between $12,000 and $14,000. At the $12,000 level, a major portion of whales are either at break even or even in slight profit, which could encourage them to book profits.
According to a crypto investor who goes by the nickname “Byzantine General,” said:
This whale is a legend.
See that big bubble around 6k in 2018?
That’s almost 9k BTC that was accumulated there.
He finally took profit, after 2 years and 2 major capitulation events. pic.twitter.com/JXhlAxmIlo— Byzantine General (@ByzGeneral) August 23, 2020
It is yet to be ascertained as to whether whales have started believing that Bitcoin has reached short-term peak. Whales, primarily due to huge size of their holdings, track liquidity. If liquidity is adequate enough for dilution, likely due to increasing retail activity, then they may look at the option of selling.
Nevertheless, a whale’s sell-off does not requisitely indicate that Bitcoin has peaked. One could debate that it increases the likelihood of consolidation in the near-term. Unless BTC declines below major support levels, it is too early to claim a top formation. Furthermore, it is cumbersome to assess the quantum of BTC sold by the whale.
A motive for a handful of whales to book profit or at least seem so is the huge spot volume of Bitcoin. As per another crypto trader who goes by the nickname Bitcoin Jack, the market continues to be “awkwardly” led by the spot market. He said:
$BTC Market remains awkwardly spot driven for now
Market remains relatively high on-chain dominance
Price expansion is therefore imminent again – direction unclear but low derivatives vs spot and spot exchange vs onchain dominance indicates we have not seen an irrational top pic.twitter.com/9k72gEgRdY
— //Litecoin ?ack ? (@BTC_JackSparrow) August 23, 2020
When the crypto market is led by derivatives market, whales will not have much liquidity and even a small sell off might result in huge price fluctuations. Currently, the short-term forecast for Bitcoin remains mixed. Michael van de Poppe, a professional trader at the Amsterdam Stock Exchange and Cointelegraph Markets analyst, forecasts a price of $10,000 for Bitcoin, in case it breaks below $11,450. He detailed as follows:
Pretty easy going here as there’s a rejection at $11,600.
If we hold the $11,450-11,500 area I think we’ll have a breakout towards $12,000 in the coming week.
Losing the green zone and I’m targeting $10,700 or even $10,000. pic.twitter.com/icCCUIZpwk
— Crypto Michaël (@CryptoMichNL) August 23, 2020
Following an almost 3x rise in price, a short-term consolidation could pave way for another round of rally in the medium to long-term.